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Why 1.2 Million Units in Lease-Up Are Holding Back Multifamily Rent Growth
Short answer: Yardi research links rent growth to lease-up inventory; concessions are spreading to older buildings, per Multifamily Dive. Yardi's Paul Fiorilla found in a September analysis that rent growth is highly correlated with the number and share of new buildings in lease-up. Sources: [1]
Why are lease-ups suppressing rents?
Yardi's Paul Fiorilla found in a September analysis that rent growth is highly correlated with the number and share of new buildings in lease-up. Roughly 1.2 million units were in lease-up at the start of August, down from a 1.4 million peak in early 2025.
Are concessions spreading?
Yes. RealPage data cited by Multifamily Dive shows about 25% of units in 1990s-vintage buildings offering concessions, up from 18% three years earlier. National concession use was 15.8% of stabilized units in July, highest in the South at 21.1%.
When could rent growth recover?
Fiorilla expects it will take 'probably a few quarters' if occupancy improves and supply keeps decelerating.
Frequently asked questions
Why are new lease-ups holding down rents?
Yardi's Paul Fiorilla found in a September analysis that rent growth is highly correlated with the number and share of new buildings in lease-up. Roughly 1.2 million units were in lease-up at the start of August, down from a 1.4 million peak in early 2025.
Are concessions spreading to older buildings?
Yes. RealPage data cited by Multifamily Dive shows about 25% of units in 1990s-vintage buildings offering concessions, up from 18% three years earlier.
When could apartment rent growth recover?
Fiorilla expects it will take 'probably a few quarters' if occupancy improves and supply keeps decelerating.
Where do these figures come from?
Every figure is attributed in the text and linked in the numbered Sources list (1 source, with publication dates where available). Vendor figures are labeled vendor-reported.